Monday, September 26, 2016

Bonddad Monday Linkfest

Weekly Performance of US Sectors




RRG Chart for US Industries




1-Year Chart of the XLKs




RRG Graph of the XLKs 10 Largest Members




Financial Performance of 10 Largest XLK Members






1-Year Chart of the XLFs




1-Year RRG Chart of the Largest XLF Members




Financial Performance of the 10 Largest XLK Members





Sunday, September 25, 2016

My Weekly Columns Are Up at XE.com

International Economic Week in Review

US Bond Market Week in Review

US Equity Market Week in Review

Steve Hayward of Powerline Continues to Be an Economic Jackass

     Today, Steve Hayward of Powerline wrote a blog post titled, The Economy in Pictures.  He uses a whopping 4 graphs to argue that the economy is near a recession.  You can stop laughing now.  
 
     Over at XE.com I have a post that uses 18 different indicators -- and these are indicators that have a long track record of being accurate predictors of economic activity -- to argue that we're still looking at a modestly growing economy.  

     Once again, we have Steve Hayward proving that he's an economic jackass of the highest order. But on a good note, we can also start to argue that he's a great contrary indicator: do the exact opposite of what he does and you'll make out like a bandit in the market.


Saturday, September 24, 2016

Weekly Indicators for September 19 - 23 at XE.com


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at XE.com.  Commodities undid their recent wobble, but the trend in several interest rate indicators is of concern.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Bonddad's Thursday Linkfest

New Fed Projections




BOJ Adds to QE (FT)

The Bank of Japan has launched a new kind of monetary easing as it set a cap on 10-year bond yields and vowed to overshoot its 2 per cent inflation target on purpose.

Its decision demonstrates that even eight years after the global financial crisis, central bankers are still willing to experiment with monetary policy tools as they struggle to escape from low inflation around the world.

The move marks another effort by Haruhiko Kuroda, BoJ governor, to surprise market expectations by expanding his monetary policy toolkit to signal his determination that Japan escape its decades of on-and-off deflation.


Weekly Chart of the Japanese ETF






The global economy is projected to grow at a slower pace this year than in 2015, with only a modest uptick expected in 2017. The Outlook warns that a low-growth trap has taken root, as poor growth expectations further depress trade, investment, productivity and wages.

Over the past few years, the rate of global trade growth has halved relative to the pre-crisis period, and it declined further in recent quarters, with the weakness concentrated in Asia. While low investment has played a role, rebalancing in China and a reversal in the development of global value chains could signal permanently lower trade growth, leading to weaker productivity growth. Lack of progress – together with some backtracking – on the opening of global markets to trade has added to the slowdown. 

Exceptionally low – and in some cases negative – interest rates are distorting financial markets and raising risks across the financial system.  A disconnect between rising bond and equity prices and falling profit and growth expectations, combined with over-heating real estate markets in many countries, increases the vulnerability of investors to a sharp correction in asset prices.

“The marked slowdown in world trade underlines concerns about the robustness of the economy and the difficulties in exiting the low-growth trap,” said OECD Chief Economist Catherine L. Mann. “While weak demand is surely playing a role in the trade slowdown, a lack of political support for trade policies whose benefits could be widely shared is of deep concern.

”Monetary policy is becoming over-burdened. Countries must implement fiscal and structural policy actions to reduce the over-reliance on central banks and ensure opportunity and prosperity for future generations.”







Table of the 20 Largest Shipping Companies by Market Cap (FinViz)




Chart of the Shipping Sector (Finviz)




Wednesday, September 21, 2016

A Divided Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged

This is over at xe.com.

August housing cools off, but slow increase in trend persists


 - by New Deal democrat

This post is up at XE.com.  The headline numbers are disappointingly flat.  But when we step back and take a look at the three month moving average, a slight trend appears.

Bonddad's Wednesday Linkfest

I'm a financial adviser with Thompson Creek Wealth as well as a tax and business attorney with The Law Office of Hale Stewart.



But maybe the real issue is that the economy is stuck in a netherworld where growth remains perpetually weak while unusually low interest rates keep the macro trend from falling into a conventional business-cycle ditch. Actually, we’ve been in something approximating this netherworld in recent years, albeit punctuated by temporary bursts of relatively solid growth.








The latest data, courtesy of the Census Bureau, which released its annual update on incomes and poverty yesterday, showed that median household income increased a whopping 5.2 percent in 2015 to an inflation-adjusted $56,516. As the New York Times, noted, it was “the largest single-year increase since record-keeping began in 1967.”

.....

Ignore the naysayers; the most recent numbers were a huge positive surprise, showing that incomes for all Americans are rising in a meaningful way. Unlike in recent years, when much of the gains went to an increasingly narrow group at the top of the economic strata, last year’s improvements were broad and deep. “Gains were spread across the income spectrum and by race, while women’s earnings inched closer to men’s,” Bloomberg reported.